Not what we Expected: Checking in with the under and overperforming teams in Europe

Here we are, suddenly midway through the 2023/2024 European football season. It feels to have flown by so far for many reasons; no World Cup as compared to last season interrupting the schedule, none of the top 5 leagues appear to have a title “wrapped up” yet which is so often the case at the turn of the year, and, rather notably, the teams that have had surprisingly hot or surprisingly cold starts to the year haven’t fallen back to the status quo.

It feels strange to be in the midst of the January transfer window and still discussing Girona as a rival to Real Madrid, or to discuss Lyon as wallowing at the bottom of Ligue 1. Those feel like stories that hit their peak after the first 4 matchdays of the season and have fully dissipated by the second international break. And yet here we are, with swaths of teams around Europe who continue to be in Dreamland, or considering serious change to right their ship. How many of these stories look destined to continue? How many fairytales could come crashing down? Let’s dig into the stats and give our verdict.

The Overperformers

Girona

Unsurprisingly, the first team we’ll look at is the biggest fairytale of all this season. After 19 matches, Girona find themselves with 48 points in the league, 2nd in La Liga behind Real Madrid on only goal difference. They boast a league-best 46 goals scored and 15 wins so far this season. Longer term fans of the Premier League will recognize (and perhaps be perplexed by) a couple of their players, most notably former Manchester United utility man Daley Blind and long time Spurs backup goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga.

Some will point to Girona’s membership as part of The City Group, the ownership consortium that owns Manchester City, as a potential reason for their success. This excuse, however, does not live up to scrutiny, with Girona’s total spend on players since promotion to La Liga being less than 40 million euros. Instead, their success is predicated on smart loan deals, strong and expansive tactics under their manager Michel, and maybe a little bit of luck.

The first thing to notice when digging in to Girona’s stats is just how far above expectation they’re performing. If we look at the expected points values in La Liga so far, Girona have earned 31.77 points from their chance creation and secession. While this is a lot more than any Girona fan may have anticipated at this point in the season, enough to put them 5th in the league in the La Liga Justice Table, it is a far cry from their current point total of 48. This deviation of 16.23 points is the largest difference I personally have ever seen. This means that they are currently earning 0.85 points per match more than their performances warrant.

While we can’t speak to the fortune that has led to this overperformance, we can speak to the underlying statistics that have contributed to their high expected points. First and foremost, this is an attacking team. Girona lie 4th in the league for xG created, behind only Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Bilbao. They create chances with astounding efficiency and have been clinical when they have needed to be, as evidenced by their 4 goal hauls against both Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.

On the other side of the ball, however, Girona are faulty. They have conceded the 5th most xGA of any team in La Liga. So far they have been fortunate to concede almost 8 goals fewer than they should have, but they cannot expect that luck to continue.

Overall, Girona is a team that seems to have to score to survive. If the goals dry up they will concede, and could quickly find themselves falling down the table back to reality. It would be beyond shocking given their xPTS overperformance if they were to challenge for the title. Their underlying statistics are still strong, however, so do not be surprised if European football comes to Girona in 2024/25.

Verdict: Cinderella Story

Revised Prediction: 5th

Bayer Leverkusen

Even while he was still playing it was fairly clear to see that Xabi Alonso would make a good manager. His raking paces and supreme intelligence made him a key component in midfield for three of the biggest teams in Europe; Liverpool, Real Madrid, and eventually Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich. He is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated players of his generation. Even so, this season has been exceptional so far.

Even those who touted him to be successful would be surprised at this astronomical climb. After inheriting a Leverkusen team that was languishing second from bottom in the Bundesliga, Alonso has led them to the semi-finals of the Europa League and now 4 points clear (albeit, with an extra match played) of his former club and German juggernaut Bayern Munich.

The statistics behind their performances this season are equally impressive. They find themselves third in expected points so far this season with 34.11. This puts them below the 38.3 xPTS of Bayern (buoyed by having only conceded 12.06 xGA so far this year) but still respectably in the hunt. They are currently overperforming their xPTS by 7.89, which indicates that their Bundesliga challenge might be a little more weak than some commentators are predicting, but they have yet to lose so far this campaign.

What is particularly interesting here is that their star players might still have more in the tank. Victor Boniface, their emerging Nigerian striker with 10 goals already this season, is actually underperforming his expected goals by almost 4. The xG that has been generated for him so far this season is 2nd in the Bundesliga, only 2 xG behind the league leader in the category, Harry Kane. When your striker has so many strong chances it indicates that the system behind them is working as intended, and is set up for the long term. It does not appear that Boniface’s goalscoring is a flash in the pan, but instead the team using him to his strength’s and getting him in the position to score. That is a great portent for Boniface, and Leverkusen’s, future.

In fact, Boniface and Florian Wirtz are such forces for chance generation for Leverkusen (1.05 and 0.57 npxG + xAG per 90 for them, respectively) that the major concern for Alonso will be to keep them fit and firing. Boniface is set for a spell on the sidelines now after being ruled out from the African Cup of Nations with an adductor injury keeping him out until April. The test of Leverkusen’s mettle will come when the team returns from the Winter break. Overall, however, this team looks like a true contender for the future under Alonso, but you can never rule out Bayern.

Verdict: Real Deal

Revised Prediction: 2nd 

Aston Villa

It feels like a long time ago that Steven Gerrard was in charge at Villa Park, and an absolute eternity since the era of Dean Smith. All credit for that goes to the immense job performed by Unai Emery since taking over at Villa. Now second in the Premier League with a verifiable fortress at Villa Park, Villa fans are dreaming of European nights even more grand than they are currently experiencing in the Europa Conference League.

In no league, however, is it more difficult to sustain a bid for Champions League football than in the Premier League. Outside of the so-called “Big 6”, only two teams have qualified for the Champions League through the league since 2015-2016 – that season’s Champions, Leicester, and Newcastle United last year. Before that, you need to go back to 2004-2005 when Everton finished third to find another team to qualify. Will Villa be the next?

Look away now, Villa fans, because the data is not in your favour. While not overperforming as egregiously as Girona, Villa do find themselves among the largest points overperformers in the league (figure 1). Their expected points do still land them in a respectable fifth place, but that indicates that their form so far has not been strong enough to gain a place at the biggest tournament in Europe.

Additionally, much like what we were seeing with Leverkusen, the goals tend to be coming to one man only: Ollie Watkins. He has accrued 27% of Aston Villa’s total xG so far this season. That number is not out of the ordinary for a top striker, with Haaland sitting at 39% for City and Salah at 30% for Liverpool. What is surprising is the drop off. For City and Liverpool, the next highest totals for xG percentage fall to Julian Alvarez at 16% and Darwin Nunez at 24%. For Villa? Penalty taker Douglas Luiz, with 13%. If you take out penalties, it becomes Moussa Diaby with 13%.

Much like our discussion of Leverkusen, this team appears to run through Watkins. If he ends up needing to spend a spell on the touchline, Villa may struggle to replace his goals. Overall, their overperformance seems as though it will unravel slightly in the second half. Expect a European anthem at Villa Park next season, but not the one that Villains will be dreaming of.

Verdict: Cinderella Story

Revised Prediction: 6th

The Underperformers

Chelsea

Dear, oh dear. How the 2021 Champions League winners have fallen. Coming off the back of a 2023 that saw Chelsea lose 19 times in the Premier League alone, the blues were defeated by a mid-Championship Middlesborough team 1-0 this week. Poch out? Boehly out? Where does the slip end for the West London team?

Despite what the media, or even Pochettino himself, might tell you, it appears more and more that Chelsea are being continuously punished by the xG gods. Under Potter last season, Chelsea had the largest underperformance by a Premier League team in xPTS by some margin, and the same trend seems to have continued into this year – despite an almost entirely new squad.  

The underlying statistics are positive. Chelsea have the 4th highest xG in the league so far this season, are 6.39 points behind where xPTS thinks they should be, and are 6th in the justice table. This is with an exceedingly large injury list including bona fide starters in Ben Chilwell, Reece James, Christopher Nkunku, and Wesley Fofana as well as potential starters in Romeo Lavia and Carney Chukwumeka. Overall, Chelsea should be able to recover from their current position towards the European places by the end of the season.

That being said, the outlook doesn’t look amazing. A consistent underperformance in expected points over the last calendar year points towards there being a systemic issue contributing to the finding instead of it just being down to variation. Additionally, with £1 billion spent since Boehly and co. took over, is “challenging for the European places” really good enough?

It is now apparent that the new owners were guilty of being too trigger happy when it came to firing Graham Potter. It is hard to argue that the current Chelsea team would be any worse off now if they still had Potter at the helm with a year’s worth of experience. While dealing in hypotheticals is a fruitless exercise, it’s an important lesson to learn from. The data says that things should improve for Chelsea. They should stay calm, trust the squad they have, trust Pochettino, and let the process continue. The markers of success are there, the missing variable is time.

Verdict: Keep Calm

Prediction: 7th 

Manchester United

There was once a moment where Chelsea and Manchester United were two of the most feared teams in the land, even in Europe. Now, they both appear to be riddled with issues, uncertain of their direction, and under new management. What are INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe inheriting, and how much should they change now?

Very few United fans would be content with where they find themselves this season. The perennial champions find themselves in 8th with 31 points after 20 games played, which should be considered a large disappointment. The truly shocking fact? They should be doing worse.

Manchester United are one of the largest overperformers in xPTS so far this season, earning 7.22 points more than they should have up to this point. In the xPTS Justice table, Manchester United find themselves nestled in between West Ham and Nottingham Forest. They are behind all of their rivals in the Big 6, but also behind both Bournemouth and Everton who find themselves battling to avoid dropping into a relegation battle.

What has contributed to this xPTS performance? Well, everything. Their defense is positively porous having allowed 35.56 xG, worse than both Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. Their xG created is most close to Gary O’Neil’s Wolves side, and worse than Sean Dyche’s Everton. Wherever you look, the outlook is dire. While a team with lower expectations may be content with this level of statistical output, Manchester United simply cannot. There are some injuries to point towards as a potential explanation, as well as some players in poor form, but for the data-driven INEOS team these excuses should be wholly unacceptable. It appears for United that it’s time for a stark change in both on-field talent, management, and overall direction. United will be back, but to turn this ship could take a while.

Verdict: Panic Button

Prediction: 9th

Lyon

The final team to consider in the European leagues this season is one of France’s largest sides, Lyon. Amazingly, up until a couple of matchdays ago, Lyon found themselves in dead last in Ligue 1 with fans and owners legitimately concerned about getting dragged into a relegation battle. For a club ranked as having the 26th highest UEFA coefficient and a spot in the Champions League semi final in 2020, this feels like a shocking fall from grace.

In a continuing trend over the course of this article, Lyon are massive underperformers in xG, the largest in Ligue 1 in fact at 6.43. They have managed to reduce that deficit recently to help them clamber out of the relegation zone, but even if they were operating at their expected points that would only put them in a measly 11th in the league. Clearly, the issues at Lyon are deeper than simple mean reversion.

While having the 4th highest xGA in the league this season does not help their cause, the real issue facing Lyon at the moment is scoring goals.

So far this season, Lyon have only scored 16 goals in 17 matches in the league. Their top scorer, former Arsenal man Alexandre Lacazette, has 7 of those 16. While having your striker scoring a significant portion of your goals is normally a good sign, those goals being 50% of your team’s scoring in the league is not a sustainable figure. Their next top scorer, Jake O’Brien, is a defender.

While Lacazette and the Lyon team are not being wasteful with their chances – they’re scoring in line with their xG – the major issue is that chances are simply not being created. Lyon have only generated over 2 xG in a game twice so far this season, against PSG in a 4-1 loss in September and against Lens in a 3-2 loss in early December.

Overall, their performance in a weak Ligue 1 should keep them safe from relegation, but that is far below where Lyon should be setting their sights. There is a lot of work to be done in the South of France and it doesn’t look like it will be a quick fix.

Verdict: Panic Button

Prediction: 13th 

Conclusion

It’s important to note that we are still only halfway through the season, and a sample size of 20 matches cannot be described as the best representation of these teams qualities. But unfortunately, football teams often do not get the benefits of a full sample size before they need to start taking action. Looking at expected points can provide clarity for teams that are massively under or overperforming, and allow them to see whether they should expect this deviation to continue. For some (Chelsea, Leverkusen) these stats can be a comfort, whereas for others (Lyon, Manchester United) they may create even more panic. In January every season there is only one truth, there’s a lot more football left to play.