Nunez vs Haaland: One Year On

Haaland. End of article.

It does feel a little bit ridiculous now that one of the largest debates surrounding the Premier League last summer was which of Erling Haaland or Darwin Núñez would have a better debut season. Here we are 12 months, 36 record-breaking goals, 1 mediocre Liverpool season, and a treble later with what appears to be a clear answer.

Of course, there was always going to be debate after the two best teams of this premier league era (and indeed, going off point totals, any era) both signed talismanic young strikers in the same window. The Pep-Klopp, Liverpool-City war had simple gained a new battleground for comparison.

But even though Haaland’s season completely blew that of his Uruguayan counterpart out of the water, you can still hear the cries of “Núñez, Núñez” from the Anfield faithful after each darting run, burst of pace, or frequently wayward shot that the young forward takes. Evidently, Núñez’s performances have won over the Merseyside faithful for some reason, even if he is not scoring goals at the ruthless clip of Erling Haaland. But where does that faith come from with such low production numbers?

It does not take much sophisticated statistical analysis to determine that Darwin Núñez’s performances are far better than the final production statistics give him credit for. For example, here are some of the major statistics upon which strikers are judged for the two players in the Premier League last season, with both gross and per 90 minutes (p90) values.

Before continuing, it is worth noting exactly how these statistics are defined for the uninitiated. To better encapsulate expected goals here I have chosen to use non-penalty expected goals (npxG) as a metric. I have used this for two reasons: firstly due to the fact that it serves as a better metric of overall performance than xG including penalties, and secondly due to the fact that Núñez doesn’t take Liverpool’s penalties so the comparison would be less fair. This, when combined with the expected assist numbers (xAG) gives us a measure of expected goal contributions (npxG + xAG).

The last statistic included contains everything that a player might do in the attack that doesn’t get covered in xG or xAG; Shot Creating Actions. These can be any action, be it a dribble, pass, shot that leads to a rebound, winning a free kick, or defensive action such as a tackle, that leads to a shot in the next two actions. For example, if Haaland were to shoot the ball off the post before the rebound is collected by Jack Grealish who passes to Kevin De Bruyne to shoot, both Haaland and Grealish would be awarded a Shot Creating Action. In this blog these statistical terms will be used a lot, and you’ll be able to find out more about them in a glossary at the top of the page, coming soon.

The statistics that live in our memory of last season are the totals contained in the first two columns, which tells the tale of utter Haaland domination. A grand total of 44 goal contributions in only 33 starts with a staggering 72 shot creating appears gargantuan in comparison to Núñez’s rather measly stats.

When we start looking at their statistics per 90 minutes, however, a new image begins to emerge. While Haaland still dominates in actual goals and assists p90 (1.17 goals!), in expectation Núñez’s performances were incredibly similar. While slightly lower in npxG, Núñez was creating chances for teammates at a much higher clip than Haaland. In fact, their expected goal contributions and their shot creating actions per 90 minutes are practically identical.

What this tells us is that Darwin Núñez’s performances last season were much, much better than the final scoresheet gave him credit for. His raw and oft-chaotic style of play may be less aesthetically pleasing than Haaland’s fine-tuned ruthlessness, but functionally their production for their teams was identical.

There are, of course, other factors to consider. Núñez’s minutes were hampered by minor injuries, an early season red card, and Klopp’s notorious strategy of easing players into his system. From a team perspective, Liverpool had a much worse season in 22/23 than Manchester City and often conceded the first goal, so Núñez was required to play more on the front foot for a team chasing the game than Haaland. There is also the fact that Núñez failed to convert these goals and assists in expectation to a reality.

Some may also argue that Núñez was deployed in a different position than Haaland, often being permitted the freedom to attack from a wide position whereas Haaland was required to play with his back to goal. In order to understand the validity of this criticism and properly control for it, some further statistics may be required.

Enter DAVIES. Not the Bayern Munich left back Alphonso, although it is from him that the statistic derives its name. DAVIES stands for Determining Added Value of Individual Effectiveness including Style. This model, developed by Mike Imburgio and Sam Goldberg for American Soccer Analysis, serves to create a single statistic to better understand how a player is performing relative to other players their age in their position.

The formula works as follows: using publicly available data from sources like FBref and Opta, players are put into a classification system to better understand their style of play. This classification system serves as a better definition of players than their position due to the focus on nuance. For example, a player like Virgil van Dijk is classified as a Progressive Central Defender due to his play with the ball at his feet, whereas a player such as Eric Dier is classed as an Aggressive Central Defender. Since these players have different classifications they will not be compared, so Eric Dier will not need to worry about contending with van Dijk to achieve a high DAVIES score.

From here, the authors combined a number of passing, shooting, defending, and touch statistics to calculate the Goals Added that a player provides (which they calculate by looking at how each touch a player has changes their team’s chances of scoring and conceding in the next two possessions). This goals added statistic is compared to players who are the same age as the target player and play in the same role to develop their DAVIES, how they contribute to their team above and beyond the expected player of that archetype.

With that covered, we can return to our analysis of our two forwards. Using DAVIES as a metric allows us to eliminate the effects of the potential role difference between Núñez and Haaland to see how they are performing compared to expectation. Interestingly enough, both players spent a lot of their time last season playing in the same role; Mobile Forward. While Núñez spent 99% of his playing time in this role, Haaland spent only 35% of his time there, with the rest of his time split between playing as a Target Forward and a Progressive Forward. While the exact nuance between these positions isn’t important for this current discussion, more information on them can be found here (link). All we need to know to compare their DAVIES statistics is that these roles are accounted for.

The table below contains the DAVIES information comparing the two from last season.

Yet again, Erling Haaland’s numbers are exemplary. Having the Norwegian forward in that Manchester City team instead of the average 22 year old forward is worth an extra 8.5 goals a season. Considering that City led the league in goals scored last season with 94, Haaland’s influence above an average professional footballer increased their total goal tally by over 10%. While Núñez’s total of 4.13 is a respectable number for a debut season, it is nothing in comparison with Haaland’s total.

It is also easy to see from here the similarities in the way that the two do tend to play by looking at the values that contribute to this total DAVIES score. Both forwards accrue most of their goals added, as expected, through directly shooting the ball. After that, they are both known for their movement inside the box creating space for both themselves and their teammates. Interestingly, outside of their shooting figures the two forwards have almost identical goals added from different phases of play, indicating that their roles and responsibilities in their respective teams are similar even if the positions they take up may be slightly different.

A similar pattern emerges yet again when we look at the per 90 minute versions of the DAVIES statistics. Yet again, Núñez’s values skyrocket to be next to or above Erling Haaland’s. In fact, Núñez’s DAVIES per 90 value of 0.19 was the single highest DAVIES p90 in the entire Premier League last season. Evidently, the way the Uruguayan played when he was given the opportunity by Jurgen Klopp last year was up there among the best in the league.

Now, what does all of this mean? Am I suggesting that Erling Haaland is not as exceptional a player as we all think? Of course not. Am I insinuating that Darwin Núñez will be challenging him for the golden boot this coming year? Not at all. Does Darwin Núñez still have a long way to go before he becomes a reliable focal point of the Liverpool attack? Definitely.

But when we all watched Liverpool, and particularly Núñez, play last year, there was a collective feeling of being on the edge of your seat whenever he would get the ball. Some attributed this to his being “chaotic,” some to it just being part of Liverpool’s style of play, but the excitement of Núñez is palpable.

It is clear to see, by looking closely at the statistics from the full season, that this feeling was entirely justified. Darwin Núñez has the style of play that could make him one of the most highly productive players in the Premier League and the man to lead the next generation of Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp. In a shaky debut season, his production numbers were (in expectation) stride for stride with one of the most prolific attacking seasons of all time. If he can improve his finishing and maintain a consistent run in the team (easier said than done in a side that has the ability to field Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Luis Diaz, and Diogo Jota), we can expect Darwin Núñez to develop into a truly elite forward.

If these numbers are to continue, the Haaland-Núñez debate that most consider to be dead and buried could instead come roaring back with a vengeance.